Champions League · resolved market
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc9a817158a32ea1081047111aa7ce378ecdefefa3a332477e5573b45190e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 11,269$7,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,504.98 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Over | 31c | 8,069$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 3,451$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.28 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 33c | 2,223$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.53 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,141$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.84 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…9719backed Under | 56c | 885.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 56c | 871.82$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.22 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 27c | 666$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 611.38$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.67 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Under | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 34c | 529.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 54c | 391.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.1 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 337.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 45c | 171.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…dd27backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 67c | 73.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 70.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 31c | 70.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 39c | 67.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 48c | 62.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 202 | 56.9%115 W · 87 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…b622backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…5ce1backed Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…2157backed Over | 46c | 34.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 68c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…3358backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Under | 67c | 15.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)Olympiakós SFP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.