Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf6dc497071d823885660c2fe1e2b79b17314efdfdd576d004b43d42c4683151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Olympiakós SFPof Olympiakós SFP, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Olympiakós SFP | 57c | 2,223$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.71 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 40c | 1,096$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…5cb9backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 41c | 1,003$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Olympiakós SFP | 22c | 559.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.39 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Olympiakós SFP | 59c | 428.48$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Olympiakós SFP | 20c | 360.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 79c | 271$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.09 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…3273backed Olympiakós SFP | 45c | 266.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Olympiakós SFP | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Olympiakós SFP | 59c | 165.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Olympiakós SFP | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 152.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…aa0dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 67c | 148.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…277ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 60c | 100.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…a876backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 41c | 78.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…1dd7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 63c | 47.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Olympiakós SFP | 62c | 37.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Olympiakós SFP | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…e776backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…cf16backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)this page
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.