Champions League · resolved market
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d3b97a4d33ec3962966996662ef113b793c6cf6f25b3b82f71da18de1a8380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 15c | 1,423$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 600 | 41.8%251 W · 349 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 1,395$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.99 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 26c | 925.9$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.03 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 80c | 627.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 539.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 74c | 499.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 17c | 470$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 464.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 442.9$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.58 | 389 | 53.7%209 W · 180 L | +21.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 72c | 333$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Over | 25c | 99.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 18c | 97.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)Olympiakós SFP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.