Serie A · resolved market

AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42a157769576a4073436d9f2095dd48d817d033385f9990ea4cbde33646b9d6

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x28c8…aaccbacked Over	76c	6,123$4,653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,653.11	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	67cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under	24c	6,000$1,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,540	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Over	0c	4,414$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	25c	3,002$763 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,238.81	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Under	63c	3,000$1,890 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,110.25	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	29c	2,292$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.84	932	52%485 W · 447 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	44c	2,267$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Over	1c	2,124$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Under	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	75c	1,124$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845.42	985	44.9%442 W · 543 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over	76c	1,118$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.68	160	46.3%74 W · 86 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over	77c	1,096$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$844.07	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Over	45c	999.98$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.99	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	40cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	48c	990.31$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.24	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over	77c	870.08$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.31	112	68.8%77 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Over	5c	853.43$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.67	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+7.4wins	+0.17per pick	20cpaid	+285.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over	74c	852.51$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.59	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.48per pick	68cpaid	-71%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under	25c	800.34$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$602.74	208	27.9%58 W · 150 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	40c	750.6$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.24	107	36.4%39 W · 68 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	76c	740.13$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.5	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	50c	662$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331	168	42.9%72 W · 96 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	23c	661.7$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.28	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Under	25c	633.68$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	0%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under	24c	619.99$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.22	98	26.5%26 W · 72 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	54c	493.43$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.45	346	43.4%150 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Over	42c	476.94$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over	74c	471.89$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.01	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	44c	441.47$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.1	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	60c	420$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	147	48.3%71 W · 76 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	74c	413.76$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.47	154	59.7%92 W · 62 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88da…d50cbacked Under	59c	357.61$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+70.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Over	38c	341.89$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.3	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe95…1c9fbacked Over	43c	300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over	32c	300$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under	43c	235.24$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.25	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Over	69c	234.57$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.44	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over	45c	220$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	50c	209.9$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.9	115	47.8%55 W · 60 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	32c	200$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	49c	199.97$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.99	150	42%63 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96db…f7f9backed Over	75c	176$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	45c	174.14$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.12	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x678e…63febacked Over	46c	159.86$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+4.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over	50c	159.38$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	152	38.8%59 W · 93 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3e…0b87backed Over	76c	155.92$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.74	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.34per pick	68cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Over	59c	150$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over	77c	150$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.2	142	54.2%77 W · 65 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over	77c	140$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	196	52%102 W · 94 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	43c	112.53$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.21	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	39c	110.12$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	114	60.5%69 W · 45 L	+14.9wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over	51c	107.84$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a71…49bcbacked Over	76c	105$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcb…1879backed Over	66c	80$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-3.9wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over	63c	79.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x455c…1c25backed Over	77c	74.4$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.29	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	68cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a44…27fbbacked Over	77c	70.39$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	68cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over	56c	68.6$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+6.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	44c	65$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.25	88	61.4%54 W · 34 L	+9.6wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a8f…386cbacked Over	76c	64.47$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Over	78c	64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	64cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa0…441abacked Over	49c	62.88$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b0…e756backed Over	45c	59.97$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a3…790fbacked Under	32c	59.34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1243…2a64backed Over	44c	56.8$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	52c	52.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	+6.1wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61b…915fbacked Over	39c	48.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b3…07f2backed Over	50c	47.16$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.7wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Over	56c	44.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	60c	42.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	368	52.7%194 W · 174 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Over	76c	40.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa41e…0a1cbacked Over	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over	36c	35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	87	48.3%42 W · 45 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754d…893bbacked Over	76c	30$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	71cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…630fbacked Over	63c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Over	77c	25.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	127	44.1%56 W · 71 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over	76c	24.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.51	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c16…8f87backed Under	54c	23.79$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.94	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc8…fd71backed Over	75c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.42per pick	75cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked Over	75c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	64cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5this page
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event