UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x847d70fc4daeb0455e8d15ec3eaddf057bd77ddb1fa50204c79cf11b1dd1a916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,000 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 56c | 97,657$54,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,968.97 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 43c | 28,023$12,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,045.64 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Under | 56c | 18,287$10,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,996.38 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 8,546$4,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,674.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 45c | 7,129$3,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.16 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 4,273$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.31 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 57c | 854.56$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 56c | 834.1$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 44c | 622.4$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.86 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Under | 57c | 621.33$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…1d4cbacked Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 56c | 524.66$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.64 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 55c | 497.36$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.84 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Over | 45c | 473.23$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…70dcbacked Over | 46c | 436.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 45c | 432.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Under | 57c | 429.66$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 55c | 410.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 44c | 330.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Under | 55c | 327.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…7adebacked Over | 46c | 267.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 53c | 256.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 243.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over | 45c | 243.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Over | 44c | 235.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Over | 45c | 234.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 231.81$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +10.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 220.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 55c | 205.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Under | 57c | 200.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Over | 47c | 189.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 175.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 56c | 174.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Under | 57c | 166.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 139.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Over | 47c | 132.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 55c | 132.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 56c | 113.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…8610backed Over | 46c | 105.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 46c | 101$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 57c | 96.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 48c | 88.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…45dfbacked Under | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 54c | 84.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…6b33backed Under | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 47c | 81.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 78.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 57c | 77.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 55c | 74.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea1…4b4dbacked Over | 45c | 68.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 41c | 60.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 55c | 57.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ba…d462backed Under | 55c | 52.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 43c | 52.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…403ebacked Under | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…5326backed Under | 54c | 49.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Over | 45c | 47.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Under | 55c | 44.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Over | 44c | 41.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…abfbbacked Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddc…7b90backed Over | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…b30ebacked Over | 47c | 30.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fa04backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 53c | 29.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 46c | 27.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 46c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 54c | 20.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…ac80backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Under | 59c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card)Jai Herbert won
- Will Mandel Nallo win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.