Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6173a15342a7f95204f25c17e10b81c204f297ab903d5305103ddc8c087fd0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,023 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 889.03$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 56c | 699.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 545.8$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 38c | 534.24$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Over | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 480$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 34c | 378$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Under | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…9372backed Over | 60c | 222.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 63c | 157.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 122.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 64c | 121.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 99.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7b51backed Over | 66c | 75.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed Over | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 37c | 37.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 36.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 38c | 27.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.