Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be5f895feb5be47c09460afb852b02f49af2d9265c536842c0de7af3d6dd48a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,680 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,253$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 24c | 1,249$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.6 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 78c | 346.04$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…56aebacked Under | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 22c | 259.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 63c | 158.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Under | 77c | 129.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 25c | 102$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 34c | 101.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 40c | 92.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 39c | 79.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 68.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 24c | 54.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 77c | 42.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…31c9backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 75c | 37.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…4711backed Under | 78c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.