Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00940a5a1360b05198354e74ddd12792ad700aada652a35d0e53785ec3f14e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SpVgg Greuther Fürthof Hannover 96, SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,704 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 53c | 2,595$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.8 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Hannover 96 | 28c | 1,248$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.91 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Hannover 96 | 12c | 828.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 76c | 666.2$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hannover 96 | 48c | 524.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Hannover 96 | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…0433backed Hannover 96 | 47c | 323.34$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Hannover 96 | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Hannover 96 | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 67c | 269.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 53c | 187.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 50c | 168.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 53c | 168.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…8e82backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 53c | 154.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Hannover 96 | 51c | 129.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 51c | 128.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Hannover 96 | 51c | 98.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 51c | 66.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Hannover 96 | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Hannover 96 | 48c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.