TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,795,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,868,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,795,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Under57c355,903$202,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,699.8374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095f…90b2backed Over43c248,252$107,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,535.071968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over48c227,483$109,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,292.4442345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Over43c180,331$78,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,121.4114343.4%62 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under56c154,005$86,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,449.744,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under36c147,000$53,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,689.7425038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under56c98,198$55,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,036.6920955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over43c76,989$32,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,936.563,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Under56c75,735$42,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,338.1433538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Under56c70,000$39,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,537.3953448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…3046backed Over44c55,795$24,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,401.171735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Over48c50,000$23,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,792.489451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Over43c46,694$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00018740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Under58c45,761$26,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,400.8917447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over55c44,807$24,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,433.348,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over61c42,571$25,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,941.641,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over44c39,163$17,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,140.611,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x928b…ccf4backed Under57c31,952$18,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,730.622142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over42c30,354$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,799.7159230.1%178 W · 414 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Under56c30,000$16,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,12517550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x839e…0d3cbacked Over44c30,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,20013639%53 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under57c27,891$15,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,098.12,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under56c25,577$14,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,136.511,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked Under51c25,446$12,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,511.9823540.4%95 W · 140 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b6…ca29backed Under57c24,198$13,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,501.012157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Over43c23,096$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0008639.5%34 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe159…d987backed Under29c21,014$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,014.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Under56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.9326447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Under61c19,613$11,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,712.1444130.8%136 W · 305 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over43c18,497$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00045428%127 W · 327 L-2.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de4…a68fbacked Over43c18,469$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0006848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Over24c16,883$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0004341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under42c16,373$6,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,481.7742541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under34c15,500$5,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,191.2429740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Under41c15,201$6,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,952.3414250%71 W · 71 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Under58c15,129$8,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,397.1824058.8%141 W · 99 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over44c14,194$6,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,252.252,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Over42c12,500$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.9421937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Under58c12,497$7,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,248.8527345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over58c12,401$7,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,158.4777152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Over44c11,930$5,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,208.6814351.7%74 W · 69 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Over44c11,500$5,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,031.252842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over43c11,389$4,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,925.566728.4%19 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d85…197fbacked Under58c11,194$6,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,709.257851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Over42c11,024$4,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,645.588135.8%29 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over41c10,294$4,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,255.7549441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under57c10,107$5,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,310.4310555.2%58 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Over44c10,000$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,42514232.4%46 W · 96 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2dd7…89aabacked Over44c10,000$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4253568.6%24 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Under55c10,000$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,474.995263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Over44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.999839.8%39 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c1…d177backed Over51c9,744$4,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,964.383145.2%14 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under58c9,610$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.727452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Over55c9,467$5,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,206.9910128.7%29 W · 72 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under56c9,001$5,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.7640655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4587…7bc9backed Under57c8,811$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.573850%19 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Under57c8,800$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.8926320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed Over77c8,685$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,686.3928229.4%83 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed Under57c8,400$4,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5738041.3%33 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under54c8,379$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.423,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over41c8,360$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.392,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3535…5ec6backed Over48c8,333$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002010%2 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x896e…53f2backed Under57c7,887$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.3517443.1%75 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under57c7,869$4,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.611,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Over44c7,847$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.643240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a79…b1a8backed Over45c7,821$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5007729.9%23 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e6…9b21backed Over48c7,703$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,69525339.5%100 W · 153 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over44c7,677$3,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,352.842,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under43c7,666$3,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.64,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae95…7adabacked Under40c7,590$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,590.022070%14 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under56c7,448$4,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.012,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Over44c7,203$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.2129154%157 W · 134 L+21.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc289…ab37backed Over42c7,101$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016947.3%80 W · 89 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec6…b86cbacked Under76c7,024$5,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.2437650.8%191 W · 185 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e3…43f7backed Over43c7,018$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00023230.2%70 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under56c6,888$3,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,996.285345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Over73c6,826$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Over74c6,692$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,918.27147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-86.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under57c6,595$3,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.111,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Under52c6,569$3,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.6213223.5%31 W · 101 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under56c6,408$3,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,787.4870244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Under57c6,367$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,767.2925336.8%93 W · 160 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Under39c6,293$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,807.9435034.3%120 W · 230 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96ac…dc89backed Under29c6,245$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,414.368913.5%12 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over43c6,000$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.9728337.1%105 W · 178 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over47c5,980$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.2415141.7%63 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Under57c5,929$3,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.965054%27 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b4…23febacked Under57c5,885$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.45745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under57c5,808$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.91,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Over45c5,556$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50037223.9%89 W · 283 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd016…6114backed Over53c5,421$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.72828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over26c5,378$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.022,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Under40c5,016$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.7216953.3%90 W · 79 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Under58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1002882.1%23 W · 5 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+46.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over44c5,000$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.9913811.6%16 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Over43c4,706$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.033357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb962…45febacked Over63c4,700$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.485435.2%19 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed Over43c4,598$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Over58c4,573$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.1924533.5%82 W · 163 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Over44c4,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00032922.5%74 W · 255 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.