TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$581,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$587,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36a3…fafbbacked Over29c404,655$117,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,350.071163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under71c344,828$244,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,000.125552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under71c30,000$21,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,70016651.2%85 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under66c19,599$12,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,634.266,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under71c8,000$5,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,32014652.1%76 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Under44c6,546$2,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,643.6419652%102 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under68c6,326$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.312,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Over27c6,021$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under71c6,000$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74013155%72 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over43c5,669$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.5920545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0ee…e8d1backed Over48c5,633$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under57c5,140$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,224.364,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over31c4,976$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.563630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under65c4,652$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.152,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over40c3,710$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.543033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under72c3,664$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.443661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c3,585$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.8417557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under71c3,500$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01515255.9%85 W · 67 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over57c3,283$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.33953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Under48c3,149$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.463351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9c…4695backed Over55c3,092$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.271752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87014158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over24c2,900$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.999055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x142b…c8c9backed Over25c2,898$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over32c2,600$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8205527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Over45c2,532$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.621428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over53c2,398$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.953655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under57c2,331$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.7911753%62 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under54c2,182$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.8774644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Under75c2,061$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.362646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea0…8d74backed Under41c2,027$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Under73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5406262.9%39 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under72c1,746$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.356051.4%288 W · 272 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc418…5e1ebacked Over58c1,580$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.31825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under72c1,576$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.211,24449.4%615 W · 629 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under73c1,477$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.3641850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over46c1,100$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.993545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb267…5f55backed Over58c1,072$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.922441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd16…d24dbacked Over24c1,072$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.982532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under52c1,006$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.021,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Over60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29012157%69 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29017062.4%106 W · 64 L+13.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29014459%85 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over30c997.28$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1896645.4%439 W · 527 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over34c995.14$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.356317.5%11 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over27c965.89$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6611828%33 W · 85 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Over48c949.99$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.53928.2%11 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under51c942.1$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.637342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1d2…73b8backed Over52c935.26$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under71c900$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26114355.9%80 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15cf…8282backed Over43c880$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4520…e501backed Under38c872.12$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.412236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10cb…8f74backed Over41c802.26$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.93475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under71c800$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23214354.5%78 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under71c800$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23212757.5%73 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under71c800$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23213855.1%76 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a3…8917backed Over12c789.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8e…1438backed Over27c745.8$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under47c721.07$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.9832049.1%157 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Over29c714.32$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.154425%11 W · 33 L-7.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d33…4af5backed Over33c709.67$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.193043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a94…769cbacked Over27c708.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.243026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over48c700$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3336446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under71c699.99$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20181053.6%434 W · 376 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Under51c678.65$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over36c667.78$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.46451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471c…3b43backed Under43c646.15$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.972240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e68…16c7backed Over41c588.17$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.152347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1468…2ca9backed Over11c587.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.678122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over27c531.22$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.439724.7%24 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over32c521.23$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6539555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14514658.2%85 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14513858.7%81 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over43c499.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21530645.8%140 W · 166 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over27c488.06$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.784129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over62c471.26$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1819244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under71c420$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.817959.8%107 W · 72 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under71c420$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.818156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e6…3cd2backed Over25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26fc…41dfbacked Over44c398.58$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8399…a37bbacked Over46c395.45$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20dc…f74cbacked Over39c372.51$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.324540%18 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under71c370$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.316858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Over53c362.1$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over64c353.43$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.715263.2%96 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under71c352$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0896443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under71c352$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.081,24042.2%523 W · 717 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under71c352$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.081,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed5…ce97backed Over54c342.14$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.761850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under80c339.93$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2374256.9%422 W · 320 L+46.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over28c334.88$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.778643%37 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…3e93backed Over60c324.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaf…9bf6backed Over30c320.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under72c319$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3227752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under57c300$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0619244.8%86 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Over33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998919.1%17 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8710960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8710860.2%65 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over55c299.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1656160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.