Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14189b11445144043b347cf0bc71e319abac88b4e3038ee88350847d9378c24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenal FCof Manchester City FC, Arsenal FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 96,358$14,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,232.95 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Manchester City FC | 13c | 1,823$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 1,527$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.49 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Manchester City FC | 13c | 1,510$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…2246backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 1,142$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…aecdbacked Manchester City FC | 9c | 892.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 663.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…79b6backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 499.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Manchester City FC | 5c | 471.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Manchester City FC | 6c | 323.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe1…befbbacked Manchester City FC | 12c | 315.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 294.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…2bd6backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 236.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…26d7backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 235.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 197.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Manchester City FC | 12c | 170.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 157.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Manchester City FC | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Manchester City FC | 13c | 109.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Manchester City FC | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Manchester City FC | 13c | 93.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.