Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32834023e9a78361babcdb716637c59d35dcd573a71a716dc9a48c5dfbcac18d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $116,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $148,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over	11c	7,934$848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$847.66	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	11c	5,485$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.53	1,615	34.9%564 W · 1,051 L	-28.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	15c	4,488$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686.02	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd16…d24dbacked Over	20c	3,988$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.73	25	32%8 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a94…769cbacked Over	13c	2,850$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.17	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	18c	2,689$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.76	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ac…7409backed Under	77c	1,862$1,439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.02	47	68.1%32 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	73cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	11c	1,130$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.42	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	16c	1,115$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.78	1,923	42.4%815 W · 1,108 L	-42.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Over	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-5.3wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Over	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	19.1%17 W · 72 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-40%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc37…bac6backed Under	69c	981.4$677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.23	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	11c	909$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	140	55%77 W · 63 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Under	80c	864.5$692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.9	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	11c	827.6$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.04	193	56%108 W · 85 L	+21.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Over	13c	801.98$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.26	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over	40c	791.18$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.47	175	57.1%100 W · 75 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Under	60c	772.19$463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.88	38	71.1%27 W · 11 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	13c	723.52$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.71	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-6.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Over	11c	716.74$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.27	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	4c	689.94$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	953	32.5%310 W · 643 L	-8.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	772	36.4%281 W · 491 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over	19c	595.18$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.03	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	11c	545.4$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	186	51.6%96 W · 90 L	+13.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over	11c	524.73$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.54	221	46.2%102 W · 119 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	31c	515.67$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.85	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over	29c	495.21$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.61	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	13c	485.12$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.07	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+39%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	13c	465.72$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	395	55.9%221 W · 174 L	+17.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Over	14c	422.04$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.09	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	3c	407$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	224	43.8%98 W · 126 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	25c	383.5$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.49	167	31.7%53 W · 114 L	-18.5wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe005…090abacked Over	8c	383.49$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed Over	12c	315.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-49%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Over	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	97	32%31 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over	11c	299.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Under	69c	284.46$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.18	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-34%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	15c	269.86$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	611	43.7%267 W · 344 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb348…776fbacked Over	13c	262.41$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.23	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a6…aed7backed Under	62c	240.35$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.76	27	88.9%24 W · 3 L	+5.3wins	+0.20per pick	69cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e35…3655backed Over	13c	238.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.95	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Under	71c	218.01$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.22	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.5wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	14c	205.3$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	86	48.8%42 W · 44 L	+6.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Over	12c	201.38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9691…c6e7backed Under	60c	195.2$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.08	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked Under	61c	190.53$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.92	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+3.3wins	+0.36per pick	52cpaid	+65.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1306…c689backed Over	12c	189.44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Over	14c	188.88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.93	87	57.5%50 W · 37 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe91c…317ebacked Under	66c	178.32$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.77	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over	27c	172.86$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.67	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+7.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	14c	169.36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	144	31.9%46 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Over	15c	167.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ba…a1e4backed Under	61c	160.1$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.44	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ec…0923backed Under	67c	146.3$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.28	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	78c	145.45$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	192	44.8%86 W · 106 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed Under	60c	145$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked Over	33c	144.35$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.63	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f22…2935backed Under	70c	140.29$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.09	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed Under	76c	129.68$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.12	62	66.1%41 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0358…30e2backed Under	80c	123.5$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.7	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Over	25c	114.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	42cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	72c	104.21$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.18	316	48.7%154 W · 162 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over	12c	103.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	245	57.6%141 W · 104 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Over	40c	89.17$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.67	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over	12c	83.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	85	49.4%42 W · 43 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Over	20c	66.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	60	45%27 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc112…d1efbacked Under	63c	54.32$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.1	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	28c	54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	279	48%134 W · 145 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over	40c	48.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	85	36.5%31 W · 54 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe83…5c7fbacked Over	41c	37.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.27	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.24per pick	45cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e35…ee1abacked Under	72c	34.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.77	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	72cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20d1…8617backed Under	75c	33.67$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6705…8184backed Under	60c	29.7$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc5…eb41backed Under	70c	28.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.42	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1815…e217backed Under	63c	24.86$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.8wins	+0.28per pick	42cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa64f…e598backed Under	77c	24.21$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.57	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	77c	23.67$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.44	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafcf…72f6backed Under	78c	21.89$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.89	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x354f…95f8backed Under	73c	15.97$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.31	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d4…1f9cbacked Under	78c	13.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.06	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba9…10d7backed Under	78c	13.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.06	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event