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Premier League · resolved market

Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f28…266ebacked Over75c160,000$120,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,000955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under25c88,021$21,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,890.566,21745.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L-33.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under25c54,464$13,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,615.9778342.5%333 W · 450 L+2.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under25c19,672$4,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,906.2239555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over76c10,142$7,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,434.014158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c4…f6dcbacked Over75c6,000$4,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.992277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under25c5,723$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.752,60647.7%1,242 W · 1,364 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under25c4,466$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.5632345.2%146 W · 177 L-1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0515…64cdbacked Over75c3,943$2,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.79875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Over75c2,183$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.523767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under25c2,111$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.711,35848.3%656 W · 702 L-3.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under25c2,056$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.252,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6a…3d59backed Over74c1,859$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under24c1,753$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.144,87441.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under26c1,313$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.291,78634.9%623 W · 1,163 L-34.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under22c1,187$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.541,94342.5%826 W · 1,117 L-41.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x647a…4d7abacked Over78c1,063$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under26c1,029$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.541850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed Under26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under24c965.38$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.611,19032.5%387 W · 803 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under25c849$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2527752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa371…60c5backed Over74c798.16$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.528765.5%57 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under26c600$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15385152.9%450 W · 401 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under26c534.8$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3758551.6%302 W · 283 L-1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under25c496.27$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0729250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Over75c492.5$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1218963%119 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under25c477.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3875056.5%424 W · 326 L+44.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed Over74c450.1$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.03366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Over75c397.94$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Over74c332.57$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.475271.2%37 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under26c300.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.739152.7%48 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Over76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729732%31 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Over75c284.67$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.175056%28 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under25c272.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2574150.9%377 W · 364 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Over74c266.05$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.171464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under26c263.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.815345.3%24 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x078e…3ebdbacked Over76c259.37$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under25c256.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6724557.6%141 W · 104 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdc5…eb41backed Over75c237.44$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.361361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Over75c202.84$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.714571.1%32 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over76c200.23$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0610550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71fd…1397backed Over74c199.54$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.881275%9 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ce…3e93backed Over74c199.54$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7536…17fcbacked Over75c197$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc112…d1efbacked Over75c197$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.256440.6%26 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under25c194.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0622146.2%102 W · 119 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Over76c194.53$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6910751.4%55 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under25c180.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1432149.2%158 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1150…abe0backed Over74c175.62$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.221136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-48.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over75c147.75$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9430559.7%182 W · 123 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over76c138.83$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8561143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under24c136.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0775244.8%337 W · 415 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…a295backed Over75c131.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.832281.8%18 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc12…c741backed Over75c131.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.83977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Over75c131.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8315560%93 W · 62 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over76c129.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1228654.2%155 W · 131 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x823f…0490backed Over76c128.13$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…70c5backed Over74c121.84$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.372951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed Under25c119.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.795367.9%36 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Under25c114.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6520425%51 W · 153 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under26c111.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6229955.2%165 W · 134 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Under27c110.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.954129.3%12 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b37…17bdbacked Under26c110.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6710125.7%26 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe971…e19bbacked Over75c99.81$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over75c98.5$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6259645.5%271 W · 325 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Over75c98.5$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.621154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65a…2e83backed Under26c80.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.024934.7%17 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over74c74.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.241,08045.2%488 W · 592 L-19.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under25c73.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8139651.5%204 W · 192 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over78c68.92$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8415966.7%106 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under25c68.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2113846.4%64 W · 74 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc8…7309backed Over73c67.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.191070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x782c…38c2backed Over74c66.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over74c66.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2925557.3%146 W · 109 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over78c65.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a54…e581backed Over75c65.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.422951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over75c59.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8517759.9%106 W · 71 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed12…246abacked Under25c57.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.332470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Under27c53.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3445224.8%112 W · 340 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ab…83f5backed Over76c51.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.45475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd30a…70ebbacked Over74c48.77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+103.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Over74c46.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1115553.5%83 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda25…abafbacked Over75c40.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.18850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a01…c0f7backed Under25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102025%5 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Over74c39.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.381643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4757…5f90backed Over74c39.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick66cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed3f…2041backed Over74c39.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd628…a698backed Over74c39.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.381656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Over75c39.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.048864.8%57 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under26c38.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0327552.7%145 W · 130 L-1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under26c38.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0330057%171 W · 129 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3790…5e8bbacked Over75c33.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.341675%12 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over74c33.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.651070%7 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6146…becfbacked Over76c32.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.210054%54 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over72c29.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.264461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Over73c29.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.839355.9%52 W · 41 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Over74c26.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.924858.3%28 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d08…3f86backed Over75c26.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.572665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Over75c26.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.578362.7%52 W · 31 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.