Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ec341a3ac74f77b910f106e46f3b08706063fafe737d0bf8536543eded4a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 40c | 2,525$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,734$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 1,469$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 78c | 1,163$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.43 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 880$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 16c | 733.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…d59dbacked Under | 19c | 657.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 536.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 35c | 514.29$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Under | 19c | 502.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 16c | 276.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 54c | 201.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 66c | 196.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 163.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 163$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 53c | 135.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 16c | 126.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 48c | 124.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 48c | 122.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 48c | 119.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 48c | 119.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 48c | 119.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 42c | 110.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 110.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Over | 53c | 109.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 60c | 106.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Under | 39c | 103.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 48c | 102.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 61c | 92.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 53c | 92.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 86.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 58c | 62.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 61.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…8501backed Under | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 42.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 52c | 42.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 54c | 40.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Under | 44c | 38.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Under | 41c | 36.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 59c | 28.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 54c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.