Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23f24672ea4c7d688dd7a3d90b94412832fcedafb378073512c6c90060ae62c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,951$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.84 | 3,288 | 42.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L | -74.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 59c | 1,112$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.07 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 80c | 1,001$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.96 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 80c | 999.81$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 829.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.39 | 1,315 | 40.6%534 W · 781 L | -44.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 39c | 694.96$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 21c | 683.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Under | 17c | 525.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 20c | 464.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 20c | 449.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 20c | 449.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 15c | 442.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 38c | 370.37$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 62c | 364.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.76 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 16c | 349.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 52c | 275.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 213.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 62c | 202.45$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 202.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 176.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 488 | 58.8%287 W · 201 L | +45.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 170.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 55c | 163$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…73a2backed Over | 62c | 160.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 72c | 159.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 72c | 157.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 33c | 148.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 75c | 142.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 142.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 141.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 70c | 137.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 116.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 74c | 114.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Over | 19c | 110.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 98.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 47c | 91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 57c | 88.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 28c | 73.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 24c | 65.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 164 | 57.9%95 W · 69 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 38c | 63.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 631 | 52.3%330 W · 301 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 60.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 39c | 48.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Under | 44c | 43.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Under | 70c | 41.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 39c | 41.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 64c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 49c | 31.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 111 | 60.4%67 W · 44 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 40c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 40c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 40c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked Over | 51c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 51c | 19.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 56c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 63c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…259fbacked Over | 63c | 16.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 73c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.