Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4ca4e5f9b7a1e0324d350b55ee88dcbd34ec7d73630903cde612e2b8922423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 7c | 1,736$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 19c | 1,448$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.92 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 18c | 1,112$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Over | 23c | 464.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 4c | 321.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 76c | 314.21$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 14c | 249.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 189.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 124.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Under | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.