Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ae665a349088e9da7461f9775c35e875a541e22a6f279cff7ac98fce1854e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 32c | 1,499$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.6 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 1,197$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.56 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 557.02$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.89 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 429.67$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.31 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…233abacked Over | 50c | 384.12$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…88cbbacked Over | 68c | 360.59$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 342.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 27c | 299.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 26c | 291.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 72c | 234.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 52c | 224.12$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 175.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 170.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 20c | 165.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Over | 30c | 162.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…7047backed Over | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 151.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 75c | 149.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 15c | 136.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 18c | 109.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 50c | 98.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 74c | 94.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 84.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Over | 44c | 76.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 26c | 70.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…0b59backed Over | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…b7f9backed Under | 37c | 39.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Over | 43c | 30.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Over | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 80c | 25.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 24.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Under | 74c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 46c | 22.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 57c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.