Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd5d269e99bddd87a54374184c1fbcfbb2eb94b41f30cb8bf0a5ac0aac5b5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGC Niceof Lille OSC, OGC Nice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed OGC Nice | 77c | 106,213$81,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,428.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lille OSC | 23c | 103,709$23,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,843.91 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed OGC Nice | 77c | 1,400$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed OGC Nice | 80c | 1,111$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lille OSC | 20c | 884.53$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.53 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Lille OSC | 20c | 150.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked OGC Nice | 77c | 148$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Lille OSC | 21c | 136.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed OGC Nice | 78c | 113$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed OGC Nice | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Lille OSC | 20c | 54.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed OGC Nice | 31c | 40.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 22cpaid | +705.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed OGC Nice | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…2065backed OGC Nice | 80c | 31.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)this page
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.