Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42439bcfd0156fd959089f2521052423c9ade306aca19f3df7d6a87ade9f7408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 58c | 2,217$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 1,278$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.4 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 39c | 1,141$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.47 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 42c | 1,113$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.63 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d86…9ecebacked Under | 42c | 965.2$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 776.44$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.27 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 631.63$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.1 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…77fbbacked Over | 51c | 582.35$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 43c | 580.97$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.35 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 570.09$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.65 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 47c | 562$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 53c | 469.38$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 36c | 442.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 22c | 360$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 58c | 315.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 254.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 58c | 252.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 242.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 42c | 231.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 42c | 224.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 224.18$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 196.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 23c | 161.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Over | 57c | 148.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 53c | 145.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 51c | 104.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 56c | 85.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 45c | 76.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 35c | 73.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 55c | 71.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 57c | 59.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Over | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 56c | 48.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 41c | 47.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…ced8backed Over | 35c | 38.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Over | 37c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 54c | 31.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 53c | 27.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 57c | 27.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 56c | 26.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 26.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 56c | 26.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 24.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.