TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Under66c17,707$11,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,096.44988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+63.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over40c9,570$3,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,827.9516045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over34c7,740$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.441,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over34c3,999$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.765461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7f…657ebacked Over2c3,299$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.763125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over33c2,666$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.172,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under63c1,295$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.433,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under69c1,253$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.311,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Over25c1,106$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.872626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under63c1,105$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.9548141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Over36c889$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.878420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Under60c662.79$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.734163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under63c571.06$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.487349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under63c562.65$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6220548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Under61c539.71$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.543751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Over41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under63c484.63$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.258547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Under60c481.51$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.643655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over17c471.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under62c470.12$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.977450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under62c463.01$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3611148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.55988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6081…f0f2backed Over57c428.53$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under65c423.91$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.111,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over35c405$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.249647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc1…b159backed Over70c400$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under64c395.46$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6517749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over35c337.04$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2248146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over37c333.64$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under63c317.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.957751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under65c317.09$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.496860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Over34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b1…1933backed Over36c279.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under66c233.51$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over33c217.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1912460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under54c206.09$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Under18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1643627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+88.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over39c189.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Under65c167.06$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.762147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed26…6282backed Under64c158.56$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Under63c138.51$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.693562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under66c137.39$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7111049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under60c129.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.274753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over35c124$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.663645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under59c104.14$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1722221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over35c102.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6912157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x758e…ad1cbacked Over35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f5…3e64backed Under66c92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Under61c91.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.191030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over35c88.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9516464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under66c87.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.75940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Under67c84$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.724447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Over33c84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.724047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.335052%26 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under60c80.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.855556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over35c76.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.718252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e44…c11bbacked Over36c71.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under61c71.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.815846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under61c69.27$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.044971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over35c67.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb9…2772backed Over23c64.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked Over39c64.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.282147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over33c62.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…5403backed Over36c61.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over35c59.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.867145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over36c59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.231,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca53…195fbacked Over34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over39c57.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.543961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Over36c56.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.284042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over37c55.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.458347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb1a…5cddbacked Under60c55.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.051770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over37c54.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.276758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd421…8531backed Over38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201560%9 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39254%1 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over34c40.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Under79c39.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over44c38.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8521540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf676…b039backed Over45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Over41c34.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.032433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Under62c33.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.864845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7784…2bf2backed Over37c32.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under64c30.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.997959.5%47 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa0…441abacked Over38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5470…7685backed Under66c24.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Under68c23.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.492759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e55…f5a3backed Under68c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…5bb7backed Under64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.26785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.