Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6af4e0dfd9e3995506316f549511fd9e6074d9be1fdf6725a443415ded200b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Under | 0c | 12,193$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 2,403$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.31 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…2732backed Over | 59c | 1,462$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 1,365$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 1,143$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.72 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 1,043$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.84 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 926.01$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.07 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 752.9$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.9 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…1ababacked Over | 74c | 679.68$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 601.37$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 488.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.38 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 55c | 479.81$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.97 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 44c | 452.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 405$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 18c | 363.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 33c | 345.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 49c | 307.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 58c | 264$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 42c | 264$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 234.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 57c | 212.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 60c | 206.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 206.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 59c | 196.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Over | 51c | 196.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 41c | 189.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 60c | 166.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 155.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 121.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 58c | 104$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 51c | 98.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 24c | 92.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 86.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 79.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 77c | 78.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 58c | 69.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 75c | 68.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Over | 60c | 46.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked Over | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Over | 58c | 38.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 58c | 36.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 77c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 59c | 28.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Over | 59c | 28.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 74c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…08a7backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…2eaabacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 57c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 42c | 24.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4361…75afbacked Under | 43c | 23.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 75c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…7800backed Over | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 59c | 21.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.