Ligue 1 · resolved market
AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02752cc42c4de42bf709e0e9910be4b26d20b12d794e4ce2541fcf22eaff4db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 60c | 8,340$5,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,004 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 7,770$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,837.7 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 7,272$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505.95 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 41c | 3,200$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 51c | 1,600$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 1,250$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.07 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…f10bbacked Under | 70c | 1,198$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +971.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 28c | 618.04$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.17 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 558.88$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 544.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.41 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 503.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.87 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 71c | 442.43$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Under | 40c | 337.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 48c | 303.73$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…718dbacked Over | 45c | 299.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 61c | 298.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.38 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 71c | 276.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 52c | 260.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 258.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.76 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ab…bd88backed Under | 73c | 233.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 27c | 225$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 79c | 199.8$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 53c | 191.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b36…5f5ebacked Over | 74c | 173.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Over | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 54cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 34c | 141.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 133.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 19c | 125.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 56c | 115.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 30c | 89.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 30c | 89.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 56c | 87.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 61c | 80.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 70.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Under | 44c | 57.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 70c | 51.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 80c | 51.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…a3cebacked Over | 29c | 50.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 56c | 48.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked Over | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…b2f8backed Over | 75c | 44.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 52c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 33c | 42.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -68%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed Under | 73c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…3875backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 52c | 29.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 39c | 28.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…b5fdbacked Over | 76c | 24.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 55c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 56c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 61c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 17.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.