Ligue 1 · resolved market
AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc15a337593e8abc1bde57cd79acacd0e0a36710ccebe1d80abaa3e31c53c2321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 57c | 681.94$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 658.96$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 42c | 612.7$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.74 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 546.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 486.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 42c | 467.41$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 78c | 402.09$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 391.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 57c | 249.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 246.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked Over | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 76c | 89.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 58c | 58.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Over | 59c | 50.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 38.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 43c | 30.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 44c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 59c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 30 | 86.7%26 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…d358backed Over | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5this page
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.