Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5bca056da858189e9f8a6e1186f96887e7a60e0994a49791f0c930fa32d2c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 69c | 7,621$5,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.37 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 46c | 4,979$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.14 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed No | 19c | 4,421$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4e…6478backed No | 16c | 2,138$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…c83bbacked No | 37c | 1,862$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 26c | 1,806$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.88 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 64c | 1,471$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.21 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 60c | 1,323$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.47 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 60c | 1,162$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.81 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 65cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,122$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.24 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…d93bbacked No | 21c | 952.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 924.15$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed No | 36c | 786.11$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Yes | 64c | 781.25$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.45 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 43c | 756.18$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.78 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 62c | 683$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked Yes | 58c | 596.55$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 40c | 585$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 39c | 581.14$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 48c | 525.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 61c | 518.28$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 37c | 484.74$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.35 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 40c | 472.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.4 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 29c | 469.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 175 | 29.1%51 W · 124 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 12c | 449.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 54c | 391.38$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.73 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 59c | 356.9$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 41c | 303.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 61c | 238.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 69c | 236.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 229.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 47c | 218.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 115 | 20.9%24 W · 91 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed No | 37c | 206.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 38c | 205$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 124 | 37.9%47 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 50c | 187.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 40c | 185.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…148ebacked Yes | 51c | 166.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Yes | 60c | 166.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 40c | 149$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 40c | 149$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 32c | 121$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 62 | 72.6%45 W · 17 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 58c | 104.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Yes | 63c | 99.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 80c | 72.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…d004backed No | 37c | 66.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 61c | 63.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked No | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 54c | 58.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 62c | 58.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 70c | 58.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 62c | 50.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 39c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…8e94backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…936dbacked No | 37c | 48.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed No | 38c | 46.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…fed6backed No | 49c | 45.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 62c | 41.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…7ef0backed No | 38c | 39.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed No | 38c | 32.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 61c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 37c | 27.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 61c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…c96abacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…fbafbacked Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…5aa7backed Yes | 63c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will FC Famalicão vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.