Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1a05198136299433900a9db11389578302fa34aa9bc646ef7360aa10c30b956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,593 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 2,525$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 26c | 1,026$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.63 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 473.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 19c | 380.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 158.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 59c | 156.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 124.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 46c | 117.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 26c | 73.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked Over | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 21c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 79c | 40.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.