Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a80eb5de85138bdb02f72b0c46a459d54aa5e2f48bbd51af323ee531d5e01b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,928 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 67c | 2,700$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.99 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 33c | 1,411$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.7 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 536.26$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 38c | 483$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 62c | 286$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 254.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Under | 65c | 185.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 108.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 64c | 103.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 13c | 88.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 34c | 77.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…8640backed Over | 35c | 61.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked Over | 35c | 61.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…eb85backed Over | 35c | 60.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.