Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c4e5688a72b36e7a88841914132cf6a4c45a34a000b438c62cafcabf10a0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,655 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 9,857$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,156.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Over | 57c | 5,136$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 4,451$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.76 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 59c | 2,525$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under | 43c | 2,514$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 43c | 1,981$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.68 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 1,244$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.64 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 35c | 1,188$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.61 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 57c | 860$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.2 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 843.67$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.89 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 72c | 608.68$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 565.96$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 520.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 59c | 503$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.77 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 56c | 355.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 344.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Under | 42c | 277.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 59c | 254.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 48c | 225.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 212.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 58c | 205.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 56c | 183.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 37c | 176.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 36c | 169.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed Over | 58c | 143.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…ed19backed Over | 58c | 133.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…b917backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 41c | 125$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 41c | 124.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 59c | 116.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 38c | 69.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 43c | 63.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 56.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 43c | 52.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 51c | 50.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 42c | 48.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 62c | 48.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 59c | 40.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…db3bbacked Under | 43c | 39.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 56c | 31.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 43c | 24.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…db2bbacked Over | 58c | 22.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…91d6backed Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa240…6300backed Over | 58c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…d30dbacked Over | 58c | 18.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.