NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe453164a87079e4a09e232f69428f34ed97e7c69abb14c1de2343b9c63530fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 7,692$3,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Rockets | 50c | 7,420$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.93 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Rockets | 51c | 6,482$3,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.24 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Grizzlies | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 49c | 4,014$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Grizzlies | 49c | 3,964$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.14 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rockets | 50c | 3,243$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.36 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Rockets | 50c | 3,123$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.35 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Grizzlies | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.1 | 116 | 39.7%46 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 1,940$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies | 49c | 1,838$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.62 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 1,398$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies | 50c | 1,108$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Rockets | 50c | 1,002$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.81 | 323 | 51.1%165 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Rockets | 50c | 1,002$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.81 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Grizzlies | 48c | 547.8$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.62 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Grizzlies | 49c | 542.6$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.87 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 460$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Rockets | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies | 48c | 332.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Rockets | 52c | 318.07$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.67 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Rockets | 56c | 292.08$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…b295backed Grizzlies | 49c | 245.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Rockets | 48c | 215.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…7ee5backed Grizzlies | 49c | 208.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rockets | 61c | 198.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Rockets | 51c | 195.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Grizzlies | 10c | 145.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 144.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets | 47c | 116.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Rockets | 52c | 110.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Rockets | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies | 50c | 96.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies | 21c | 95.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 92.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Grizzlies | 47c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 75.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Grizzlies | 15c | 68.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 73 | 16.4%12 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +1,317.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Grizzlies | 51c | 63.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…16e6backed Rockets | 52c | 54.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rockets | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…527bbacked Rockets | 51c | 37.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Rockets | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 34.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Rockets | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Rockets | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Grizzlies | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Rockets | 53c | 28.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 45c | 25.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…3a70backed Rockets | 50c | 23.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed Rockets | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.