NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb114f162df28d89aa9c4aafc4fb4ba6cb2a58707c720ac204ffefdf3254679f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 57c | 6,510$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.8 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 5,172$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed Over | 51c | 863.56$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.42 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047c…3ce4backed Over | 57c | 850.3$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 43c | 772.64$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.24 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 42c | 750.12$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.05 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 43c | 694.41$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…8fdabacked Under | 49c | 667$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.83 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 652.45$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 242.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 240.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Under | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 182.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 49c | 172.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 44c | 130.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 48c | 116.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…7579backed Over | 58c | 115.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…a5fdbacked Under | 18c | 105.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 51c | 104.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 59c | 84.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Under | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 44c | 58.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 56.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 41c | 52.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 57c | 35.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 51c | 34.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Under | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…7000backed Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…7b22backed Under | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 52c | 26.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…a207backed Over | 58c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.