NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e6635524281bb41e4b4a8ad37dcf97fce166680af9f0568f8e597ef5828d69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 61c | 9,349$5,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,690.55 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 39c | 6,835$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,158.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rockets | 41c | 1,094$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.17 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…fce6backed Rockets | 49c | 989.18$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.48 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies | 51c | 900.91$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.19 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Rockets | 39c | 673.32$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.73 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Rockets | 44c | 458.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Grizzlies | 51c | 276.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Rockets | 43c | 225.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Grizzlies | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Grizzlies | 57c | 189.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Rockets | 43c | 168.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 56c | 150.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 40c | 129.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Rockets | 49c | 113.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Rockets | 40c | 75.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 41c | 66.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Rockets | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 49c | 42.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Rockets | 39c | 40.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Rockets | 43c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Rockets | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Rockets | 41c | 29.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Grizzlies | 60c | 29.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Rockets | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -17.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Rockets | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Grizzlies | 58c | 18.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.