NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2236984292712604f41ab15ae8a67c2090243fc54dfca96e085fdfe0bbdb852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 49c | 10,684$5,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,235.04 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 51c | 4,169$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Rockets | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Rockets | 51c | 3,881$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.64 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Rockets | 55c | 3,546$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.42 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Grizzlies | 49c | 2,908$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.02 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Grizzlies | 49c | 999.91$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.96 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Rockets | 53c | 971.8$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 939.37$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 661.45$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.84 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 47c | 557.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.37 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Grizzlies | 47c | 549.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Rockets | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rockets | 48c | 484.34$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rockets | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 316.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Grizzlies | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Rockets | 51c | 288.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 250.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Grizzlies | 48c | 209.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Rockets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Rockets | 52c | 177.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Rockets | 52c | 177.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Grizzlies | 46c | 173$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Rockets | 51c | 172.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Rockets | 53c | 146.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Rockets | 51c | 141.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies | 47c | 136.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Rockets | 53c | 127.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…9368backed Grizzlies | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Rockets | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Rockets | 52c | 88.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 85.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 69.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Rockets | 51c | 65.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Rockets | 53c | 62.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 162 | 45.1%73 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Grizzlies | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Rockets | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Grizzlies | 49c | 50.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 49c | 49.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Grizzlies | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Grizzlies | 36c | 44.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Rockets | 53c | 41.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Rockets | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Rockets | 55c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Grizzlies | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Grizzlies | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Grizzlies | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Grizzlies | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Grizzlies | 49c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 20.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rockets | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Rockets | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.