NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a56afe23714187c0fbdf88d549a3ef4f2e1aa67645b55e1c8699149ed34004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Rockets | 53c | 3,667$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.57 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 3,203$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 54c | 2,217$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…4ad4backed Rockets | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 39c | 1,835$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.71 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets | 68c | 1,471$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.86 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,014$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.51 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88b…976cbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Grizzlies | 46c | 982.29$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.85 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 45c | 964.85$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.1 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb097…0e61backed Grizzlies | 45c | 795.09$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.79 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 756.19$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.28 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies | 47c | 579.5$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.19 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Grizzlies | 43c | 370.25$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3b…0cf9backed Rockets | 56c | 349.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.63 | 221 | 59.7%132 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Rockets | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 307.49$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Rockets | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Rockets | 59c | 292.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 45c | 253.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Rockets | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Rockets | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Grizzlies | 39c | 96.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Rockets | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Grizzlies | 51c | 74.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Grizzlies | 45c | 68.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Grizzlies | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Grizzlies | 44c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 46c | 30.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Rockets | 62c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Rockets | 53c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 21.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Rockets | 48c | 21.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rockets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.