Token Launches · resolved market
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d458c0ed08b72a6b021e27b848099b40ae7cf3a4637177cd78b89b6f71ddfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 4c | 17,034$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.41 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,621$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…4064backed Yes | 2c | 3,970$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f58…35bcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,023$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,864$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a4…3e56backed Yes | 3c | 1,747$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 8c | 1,287$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…79ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,261$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,191$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…2c0ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,001$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…9fe5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c3…098abacked Yes | 12c | 798.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 794.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…bc6fbacked Yes | 2c | 729.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…c13fbacked Yes | 5c | 721$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…bfccbacked Yes | 4c | 560$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…e387backed Yes | 10c | 538.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…582cbacked Yes | 12c | 453.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…3e5abacked Yes | 6c | 421.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed Yes | 5c | 402.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 367.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…0dccbacked Yes | 5c | 343.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…3813backed Yes | 8c | 326.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 308.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 295.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Yes | 5c | 289$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…a98bbacked Yes | 7c | 282.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 13c | 282.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 6c | 277.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 4c | 246$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…d574backed Yes | 15c | 243.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…9759backed Yes | 6c | 208.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 8c | 204$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…6e36backed Yes | 8c | 201.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 6c | 186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked No | 72c | 141$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7d…84f8backed No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Yes | 23c | 99.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…c8e1backed Yes | 13c | 93.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?this page
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes won
- Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?No won
- Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.