Token Launches · resolved market
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116cffa74f783bc4c7b435619fe4b3a69583316feb1f4eb29d0d67e7f0c7eded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 1c | 7,559$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed No | 1c | 6,689$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +698.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 6c | 1,663$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,199$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 16c | 534$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 16c | 464$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 16c | 397$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 8c | 373$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +342.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 16c | 357$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 5c | 341$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 4c | 310.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 9c | 306.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 10c | 291$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 5c | 270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0821…6154backed No | 8c | 268.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 9c | 234$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed No | 11c | 215$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 32c | 185$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 68c | 185$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 16c | 145$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…fc3dbacked Yes | 80c | 85.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?this page
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?No won
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes won
- Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.