Token Launches · resolved market
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed No | 2c | 25,201$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +698.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 14,638$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 4c | 6,538$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked No | 1c | 4,601$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed No | 5c | 4,189$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,693$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 2c | 3,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 4c | 2,911$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 15c | 2,262$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 10c | 2,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,968$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…5eb4backed No | 6c | 1,839$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…b0d0backed No | 2c | 1,197$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4543…93e2backed No | 2c | 1,050$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…948ebacked No | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…05eebacked No | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…5c8ebacked No | 5c | 986.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 2c | 978.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc823…528abacked No | 4c | 918$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa86…daccbacked No | 5c | 875$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 3c | 853.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 3c | 826.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 10c | 805.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 4c | 765.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 5c | 699.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…ab47backed No | 10c | 677.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 14c | 579.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…6fa4backed No | 4c | 537.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…968abacked No | 4c | 526.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 5c | 524.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 19c | 516$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…f81cbacked No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 8c | 493.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 457.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 3c | 447.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 78c | 421$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked No | 2c | 420$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 5c | 400.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed No | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 6c | 388$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 19c | 324$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…efa4backed No | 12c | 299.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 17c | 290$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 30c | 287$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 19c | 283$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 17c | 278$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 271$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 17c | 261$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 7c | 252$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed No | 16c | 247$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 17c | 239$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 8c | 230.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +1,240.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 38c | 225$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…cba9backed No | 19c | 214.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 6c | 208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce4…d707backed No | 11c | 200.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed No | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 13c | 196.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 6c | 195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 7c | 186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 19c | 186$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 6c | 179$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 19c | 157$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 19c | 137$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?No won
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes won
- Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?No won
- Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.