Token Launches · resolved market
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5bfb1db28eb587f9afda68f671aff0b5ea115dd24caad57dc889d4e5d9055f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 0c | 2,673$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48e…7708backed No | 4c | 690$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 20c | 520$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 4c | 475$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +349%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 4c | 428$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 15c | 369$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 12c | 322$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 4c | 307$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 80c | 291$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 4c | 262$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed No | 8c | 241$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 14c | 238$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 20c | 214$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 20c | 189$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 8c | 181$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 8c | 149$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed No | 12c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 10c | 107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked No | 12c | 88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 80c | 82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 20c | 75.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 80c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?this page
- Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?No won
- Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?No won
- Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.