Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43863c5ad8d2bc2ad4e98d5491e2f35ee7982fc5022408fd6ec09daaa25fb8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 3,071$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.49 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 79c | 2,210$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,772$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.35 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 63c | 1,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 555.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.66 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 26c | 554.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 71c | 531.94$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 47c | 521.28$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 444.21$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 421.15$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 406.64$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.9 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…94ccbacked Over | 61c | 301.39$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 34c | 298.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 20c | 270$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 12c | 161.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…5ca7backed Over | 71c | 136.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 75c | 134$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…a8c9backed Over | 69c | 128.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 44c | 93.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 26c | 92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…0bd2backed Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 25c | 65.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Over | 71c | 37.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…604bbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…1e3bbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 35c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…fed6backed Under | 58c | 26.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x508b…9c09backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…f939backed Under | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.