Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08d4f12da9d98fbf4ac60114a6ddd6d818d373daf6c1dc4b9bf262b12879f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,685$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.93 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 12c | 1,540$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 1,108$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Over | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 54c | 550.46$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 450$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 420.33$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 380$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 73c | 311.15$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 21c | 298.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 273.12$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 29c | 250$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 56c | 192.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 19c | 160.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 68c | 138.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 114.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 33c | 90.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Over | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Over | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 39c | 64.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 61c | 44.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 69c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.