Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7520af1e6958a982c3805e86ebc4202d7f2bf5e3f332d6d1d728d40fdffcc6b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,831$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.58 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 4c | 1,448$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 49c | 1,186$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.61 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 51c | 980.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 47c | 637.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.66 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 49c | 320$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 49c | 312$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…32b2backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 15c | 156.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 153 | 61.4%94 W · 59 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 54c | 110.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 82.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 62.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 45.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 54c | 40.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.