World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a62e12f8da87f9abfbabb953cb0158d4774b4456e81b587b9449c38948e2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 9c | 23,481$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c9…4b20backed Yes | 79c | 3,776$2,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 64c | 3,223$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.68 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 6c | 2,200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…90a1backed No | 34c | 1,572$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…386ebacked No | 31c | 1,284$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…3005backed No | 18c | 1,272$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 1,258$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 19c | 766.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…8fdfbacked No | 7c | 696.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…8180backed No | 24c | 677.27$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 22c | 648.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 33c | 614.01$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.37 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…0643backed Yes | 74c | 570.12$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…6d17backed No | 20c | 508.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 14c | 492.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 18c | 470.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 49c | 447.56$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.02 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 53c | 445.41$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…5c5ebacked Yes | 76c | 430.6$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…f34ebacked No | 17c | 422.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…87b2backed Yes | 79c | 410$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 71c | 380.02$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.39 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3583…76d1backed No | 29c | 351.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…0126backed No | 33c | 299.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 297.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…c302backed No | 28c | 265$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 262$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…1cd7backed Yes | 79c | 258.59$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 20c | 247.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…24cbbacked No | 8c | 214.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…9d51backed Yes | 72c | 209.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked Yes | 48c | 206.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked Yes | 36c | 205.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…06e7backed Yes | 74c | 203.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…60adbacked No | 41c | 199.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…2098backed No | 23c | 199.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…9782backed No | 17c | 189.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 74c | 176.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…1d5bbacked Yes | 78c | 155.9$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 27c | 152.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 23c | 151.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…825ebacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…e72dbacked No | 20c | 126.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 33c | 121.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 24c | 103.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 27c | 103.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…2699backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 73c | 96.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…bc47backed No | 33c | 86.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6500…dc48backed No | 21c | 78.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…c098backed Yes | 69c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed No | 34c | 71.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…ccb6backed No | 25c | 60.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee40…ede2backed No | 32c | 55.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…1667backed No | 40c | 49.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…2292backed Yes | 74c | 47.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 35c | 44.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3b…bbc3backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ee…5470backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 79c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…4b99backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?this page
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 205 and 219 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 220 and 234 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 190 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.