World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62321e23190f4d23687b67371eebc3de87bcd54b65ba92467f88d05ada3a5ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4943…3884backed Yes | 11c | 9,998$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 8,829$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.03 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes | 3c | 6,854$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…f3cdbacked Yes | 7c | 5,824$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…488ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 757.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 15c | 549.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 393.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 18c | 378.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 12c | 374.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 13c | 342.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…a8f3backed Yes | 16c | 320.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 44c | 232.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…0795backed Yes | 22c | 223.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 182.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 28c | 179.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed Yes | 26c | 177.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 10c | 146.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 121.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…6d56backed Yes | 18c | 112.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…aa97backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 20c | 94.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…b917backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 69.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 22c | 45.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 40.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…5fe8backed No | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?this page
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 205 and 219 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 220 and 234 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 190 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.