TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes15c19,263$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.159115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc096…7c0dbacked Yes0c9,536$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes11c8,044$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.59712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes17c6,704$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb7…3297backed Yes17c5,088$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.2170%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes19c4,797$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+53.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b9…a20fbacked Yes16c4,626$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.5940%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes14c4,156$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.524420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes10c3,867$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes5c3,042$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.341612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-35.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…4442backed Yes13c2,775$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed9…11f0backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes9c2,390$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.111530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes11c2,354$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes10c2,257$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4323435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes21c2,051$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4353630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2545…781dbacked Yes22c2,019$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.02520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes26c1,984$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.469326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8aa…e3e9backed No79c1,930$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,896$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.41302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed Yes5c1,863$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddc…4c46backed Yes1c1,813$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes18c1,689$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.587250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c1,652$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.55520%0 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,623$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes6c1,620$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.01540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+95.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No79c1,600$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.42277.3%17 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes16c1,558$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.424942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c1,419$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.89580%0 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes25c1,366$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3453458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b3b…a173backed No79c1,261$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes15c1,234$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.57419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No74c1,228$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.54348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes12c1,173$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes28c1,000$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754010%4 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-50.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c999.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-95.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459d…e305backed Yes12c957.06$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes9c956.79$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.56864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes30c939.78$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.642015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes14c939.07$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.27844.9%35 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c900$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes12c865.26$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.569138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f01…225bbacked Yes6c821.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes19c799.98$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes7c719.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.44744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No80c710.26$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes10c699.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.44551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes20c636.38$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.518232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed No73c618.13$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No71c600$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b78…e410backed No80c589.46$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…c046backed Yes28c568.46$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes13c510.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.341520%3 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-69.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fbe…0764backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes28c450.9$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.661030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e67…77adbacked Yes12c433.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes25c432.12$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes14c428$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.028936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes11c412.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.324535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c411.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.715327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes23c400$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9012937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefab…b927backed Yes13c400$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.81250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No77c380.01$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes7c370$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.214239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes7c364.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.942711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes11c342.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.191323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed No73c340.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8809…6e34backed Yes18c308.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb883…e610backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d8…67f5backed Yes28c265.21$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes12c246.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed Yes22c238.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586f…ce5dbacked No77c226.09$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.48660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No73c200$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes15c199.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.31833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab69…2283backed Yes8c197.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes6c197$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.111618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-72.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes26c193.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07e…7db6backed Yes25c189.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes9c182.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes16c175.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4320026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e0…7bf4backed Yes12c170.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes17c168.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.872714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae1…0f72backed Yes13c167.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes10c162.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6111225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa517…33efbacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes11c156.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.222259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c155.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9326318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbc2…0b03backed Yes13c150.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No58c148$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.316100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+90.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcee8…cf81backed No76c131.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa574…efe0backed No76c131$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed No76c130$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac99…1380backed Yes24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.781250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c123.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8529416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.