Fed Rates · resolved market
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50ba17676588be35303b9d046d3de9f50a2d054b68090bf6e764197c4ba17967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 30c | 9,984$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991.38 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 8,719$5,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000.17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 4,514$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.54 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 65c | 3,578$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,884$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 66c | 2,375$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked No | 65c | 1,905$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…2e99backed Yes | 19c | 1,895$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 59c | 1,347$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 76c | 1,346$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 1,231$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.96 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 74c | 1,208$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked No | 60c | 1,149$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…a4aebacked Yes | 38c | 1,054$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,009$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cd…0aa9backed No | 75c | 853.15$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…d498backed No | 61c | 817.68$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867b…9fbabacked Yes | 54c | 817.6$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 23c | 799.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed No | 52c | 780$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 63c | 749.98$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.49 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 719.58$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.28 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 75c | 600$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 66c | 512.4$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 39c | 510.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 54c | 503.14$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 455.49$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 70c | 447$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 22c | 400$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…bd9ebacked Yes | 19c | 378.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked Yes | 40c | 371.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 369.85$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…cd4ebacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 300$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 54c | 291.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 50c | 269$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed2…13d7backed Yes | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa06…1e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 242.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…5270backed Yes | 23c | 240.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 42c | 226$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked No | 76c | 225.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d3a4backed No | 57c | 210$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 80c | 205.64$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad60…97f4backed No | 79c | 199.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 194.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 46c | 191.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…18f2backed Yes | 19c | 189.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 183.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 48c | 158.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 15c | 155.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…4eecbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 64c | 149.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 15c | 149.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 26c | 149.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked Yes | 35c | 149.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 33c | 135.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…b4bdbacked Yes | 39c | 131.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 37c | 131.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 46c | 122.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 76c | 120.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 53c | 115.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…39b2backed No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…415bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…c1cabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed Yes | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 93.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218a…850abacked Yes | 12c | 83.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes | 54c | 83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…3fcebacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b202backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 37c | 79.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 30c | 75.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6e…4391backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…2212backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 38c | 69.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…111abacked Yes | 45c | 67.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…8afebacked Yes | 62c | 65.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.