Fed Rates · resolved market
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd64b7781093e21b1659bafc7ee4d1710dc3ef947fcafb78df11b2f90a6b2a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,015$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…2374backed Yes | 13c | 405.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 15c | 378.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 11c | 350.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.92 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 51c | 323.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 309.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 255.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 184.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 12c | 183.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 139.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 105.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 67.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…b0fdbacked No | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…46aebacked No | 60c | 21.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.