Fed Rates · resolved market
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96479ad432494bbfc7624912f5f6d5a6a2a440101f2df7999cd050cedc3d3f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 12c | 322.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 72c | 278.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…46aebacked No | 57c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?this page
- Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.