Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd69819be0d09646b4007ee1981a9e2af84897240ea75267d52f62a58e1c312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 11c | 990.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 513.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 27c | 438$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 76c | 299.98$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 78c | 250$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…ec28backed Yes | 24c | 211.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 24c | 205.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 25c | 133.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 23c | 128.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…f923backed Yes | 18c | 128.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 74c | 121.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 108.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 45c | 103$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 20c | 100.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…2374backed Yes | 36c | 98.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 15c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 67.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 49.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 64c | 45.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 73c | 44.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 43.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…3db8backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 51c | 27.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…46aebacked No | 60c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.