Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b263be6696f05f2f16135031ddc1632a7209fc11ce41af5409f60fe797080fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 77c | 1,527$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 22c | 799.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 21c | 430.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 322.97$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 246.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 13c | 137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 24c | 123.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 23c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…ec28backed Yes | 24c | 84.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 78c | 60.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 25.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.