Spread: Liverpool FC (-0.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1880e402cf472ef1a0306fe66362767fd6b39fc5e6d893c5fec56d7d24ae8343

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Liverpool FCof Liverpool FC, Real Madrid CF
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,486 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Liverpool FC	40c	45,049$17,977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,071.77	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Real Madrid CF	60c	34,046$20,427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,427.49	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-4.3wins	-0.39per pick	49cpaid	-88.6%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Liverpool FC	38c	2,652$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,650.29	176	58.5%103 W · 73 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Real Madrid CF	60c	2,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Real Madrid CF	60c	1,853$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-6.9wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd95…e042backed Real Madrid CF	60c	1,480$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Liverpool FC	41c	1,272$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.12	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27b2…865ebacked Real Madrid CF	62c	1,151$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Real Madrid CF	60c	1,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Real Madrid CF	61c	803.23$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.97	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a6…ab4dbacked Real Madrid CF	59c	506.99$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.13	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	500$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-5.5wins	-0.17per pick	59cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Real Madrid CF	61c	491.8$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0740…df2fbacked Real Madrid CF	62c	483.87$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Real Madrid CF	60c	350$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	122	42.6%52 W · 70 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Real Madrid CF	60c	333.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Liverpool FC	38c	332.98$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.45	189	50.3%95 W · 94 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3468…f493backed Real Madrid CF	62c	322.53$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c4…501bbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	300$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.25per pick	52cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Real Madrid CF	60c	300$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28f0…6f9dbacked Real Madrid CF	63c	227.94$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc420…2badbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	201.64$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0647…da66backed Real Madrid CF	62c	191.94$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Real Madrid CF	60c	166.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Real Madrid CF	60c	166.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Real Madrid CF	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Real Madrid CF	63c	158.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Real Madrid CF	60c	125$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x390c…75b5backed Real Madrid CF	61c	122.95$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Real Madrid CF	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-5.8wins	-0.13per pick	59cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda5c…ed5bbacked Real Madrid CF	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6683…c3d6backed Real Madrid CF	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Real Madrid CF	59c	99.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.99	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Real Madrid CF	60c	85$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…f2e7backed Real Madrid CF	62c	80.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc5…821fbacked Liverpool FC	41c	80$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.59per pick	41cpaid	+143.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Liverpool FC	41c	78$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.02	202	41.6%84 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Real Madrid CF	61c	74$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.14	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac70…d0e7backed Real Madrid CF	61c	73.77$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…7313backed Real Madrid CF	61c	70.25$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.85	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ee…eab7backed Liverpool FC	41c	61.8$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.59per pick	41cpaid	+143.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2424…a3ecbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	57.38$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	65cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Real Madrid CF	61c	57.38$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Real Madrid CF	63c	55.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5617…38fcbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	49.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb967…3bfdbacked Liverpool FC	41c	48.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e42…ca63backed Real Madrid CF	62c	47.05$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e34…f621backed Real Madrid CF	60c	46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Real Madrid CF	59c	43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9d…b033backed Liverpool FC	43c	40$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5666…7949backed Real Madrid CF	62c	39.48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e60…18dcbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	39.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a97…fcedbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	36.07$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…5cb2backed Real Madrid CF	62c	35.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	59cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Real Madrid CF	62c	33.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Real Madrid CF	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb855…c1bebacked Real Madrid CF	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc02…f89cbacked Real Madrid CF	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+92.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5038…4aa1backed Real Madrid CF	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be2…4c5bbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x731c…b8f2backed Real Madrid CF	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c09…a69fbacked Real Madrid CF	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b4…c74cbacked Real Madrid CF	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f07…c05fbacked Real Madrid CF	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x593a…57b1backed Real Madrid CF	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Real Madrid CF	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-5.3wins	-0.19per pick	40cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Real Madrid CF	60c	28.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e5…8e79backed Real Madrid CF	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f4…8f2cbacked Real Madrid CF	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6946…bdeebacked Real Madrid CF	62c	24.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	68cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Real Madrid CF	63c	23.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa351…17c3backed Real Madrid CF	60c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-0.5)this page
Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-0.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event