Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf006b7ae3f3ca32e0edc96e5ca23b92ab49a4b89a6dd653bdd4842f42715d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 16c | 5,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 54c | 3,303$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.81 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 49c | 2,783$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.89 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 44c | 2,518$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.85 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a40…6d1bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 50c | 521.08$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 15c | 420.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ed…fbddbacked Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…c18abacked No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 55c | 112.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…83c7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52d…3728backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…5fcfbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…1bf8backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 53c | 75.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 53c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a0…2fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 74.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked No | 41c | 69.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 53c | 64.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…6491backed Yes | 43c | 37.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…65b8backed Yes | 55c | 36.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 56c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…7766backed No | 45c | 31.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…c01abacked Yes | 49c | 27.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 56c | 26.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.