Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb19274359d9c7ca7d0c363328362ee60612a37d7f90faae77c5a9a7c79c23651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 8c | 17,506$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…9922backed Yes | 0c | 12,533$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250d…aec0backed Yes | 13c | 11,311$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 17c | 8,428$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.08 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 6c | 5,243$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.63 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 3c | 3,667$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…4f2cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,637$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,547$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,182$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.73 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…f1edbacked Yes | 13c | 3,077$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…d95bbacked No | 78c | 1,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd099…60edbacked Yes | 26c | 1,921$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,309$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…0c36backed Yes | 4c | 1,248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,027$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,001$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 952.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 8c | 936.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 835.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…dcfcbacked Yes | 2c | 818.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 10c | 812.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc44…1a25backed Yes | 3c | 769.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 752.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 2c | 728.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 12c | 675.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 609.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked No | 79c | 463.86$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…51b2backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 380$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 79c | 316.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…d316backed Yes | 7c | 271.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 11cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 5c | 214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 10c | 175.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked Yes | 21c | 159$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0db…07bdbacked Yes | 11c | 140.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933e…901fbacked Yes | 14c | 111.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…65b8backed Yes | 9c | 111.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f9dfbacked Yes | 13c | 91.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 23c | 71.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c9…a809backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa186…a72bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.